Climate change to devastate crops, promote livestock

[B]y 2050, hotter conditions, coupled with shifting rainfall patterns, could make anywhere from 500,000 to one million square kilometers of marginal African farmland no longer able to support even a subsistence level of food crops. However, the land, on which some 20 to 35 million people currently live, may still support livestock.

Boosting livestock production could be an attractive alternative for millions of poor farmers across Africa who, in the coming decades, could find that climate change has rendered their lands unsuitable for crop cultivation yet still viable for raising animals, according to the study that appears this week in a special edition of the journal Environmental Science and Policy.

That’s from a press release put out by ILRI, the International Livestock Research Institute. The paper is from a special issue of Environmental Science and Policy on Food Security and Environmental Change, Food Security and Environmental Change: Linking Science, Development and Policy for Adaptation. Just skimming the contents gives me the willies.

By the way, Wikipedia says sub-Saharan Africa covers an area of 24.3 million square kilometers. It doesn’t say how much of that supports a subsistence level of food crops. So it is hard to know how much difference this prediction will really make.

Food strategies for the future

Coming from a state, Wisconsin, that has more cattle than people, I say thank your lucky stars that Hindus worship cows, because it could be a lot worse. As globalization triggers the successful emergence of a world-spanning middle class largely centered on India and China, what Mr. and Mrs. Middle-Class Chindia choose to eat in coming decades will reshape this planet’s ecosystem to a profound degree.

Tom Barnett has a clear-eyed view of the future, and his take on The Economist’s take on rich countries rushing to buy up farmland makes fascinating reading. Here are his two conclusions:

So those Chinese and Saudi Arabian agents running around the planet, buying up all the arable land deeds they can find, are simply trying to hedge against this inexorable future. Will such pieces of paper matter when a serious food shortage hits? I doubt it. Last year China was one of the first nations to slap restrictions on rice exports, so how can it expect states where it may own farmland to act any differently?

But here’s where the new rules really kick in: A 21st century dominated by advances in biotechnologies is sure to feature commensurate bioweaponization, including among the weapons wielded by transnational terrorists. As energy production becomes increasingly localized thanks to technology breakthroughs, expect global food transportation systems to become the preeminently vulnerable — and thus preeminently guarded — commodity network on the planet.

You think so?

Carnival time

The latest (5th) Scientia pro Publica blog carnival is up at Pro-Science, offering a selection of blog posts that celebrate the “best science, nature and medical writing targeted to the public”. As ever, we scour the lists looking for things of an agricultural bent (no matter how vague). Overfishing Simplified… Then Complexified comes closest. Mauka to Makai follows some of the tangled webs that connect piscivores, and while definitely illuminating, it isn’t all that optimistic.

Later … Festival of the Trees is just out too, at Roundrock Journal. Lots of fruit stuff there. Seems to be a good day for nibbling fruit today.

Semi-naked chicks go wild on Crete

“Eeyew. What’s wrong with that chicken?”

We were sitting on the shaded verandah of Nico, a lovely man who, after training as an architect in the US, chucked it all in to live off the grid and as sustainably as possible in a converted hovel in the west of Crete. No electricity, no running water, a wild garden and wilder chickens foraging through it.

Naturally I peered at the chicken, and there it was: naked-necked as I live and breathe.

Cretan_chickens.JPG

“Golly, a naked-necked chicken, here on Crete.”

Nico, meanwhile, was answering my friend, and explaining that it was that way naturally and didn’t seem to be any different from the other chickens in his flock.

I waded in with information about the naked-necked chickens of Transylvania and elsewhere, citing the very latest thoughts on the subject, to-whit:

The use of single or combined dominant genes for feather restriction (Na) and feathering structure (F), as well as the sex-linked recessive gene for reduced body size (dw), has been found to be particularly relevant for the tropics (Horst, 1989; Haaren-Kiso et al., 1995). Research into the effects of these genes on economic factors has been undertaken in Malaysia (Khadijah, 1988; Mathur and Horst, 1989). For example, the feather restriction (Na) or Naked Neck gene results in 40 percent less feather coverage overall, with the lower neck appearing almost “naked”. This considerably reduces the need for dietary nutrition to supply protein input for feather production, and protein is a limiting factor in many scavenger feed resource bases. Barua et al., (1998) has reviewed the available information on the performance of indigenous Naked Neck fowl in the hope that it will draw the attention of scientists worldwide to its interesting characteristics and facilitate future research.

I asked Nico whether the naked-necked birds were more efficient egg layers, or suffered less in the heat, but he didn’t know. I said I’d be happy to return to conduct a thorough investigation, but I haven’t had a reply yet.

The photo took some doing too, the birds treating me as an overlarge predator definitely up to no good. Which they should.

EU Conference on Seed Law

We’ve blogged often about the EU’s seed regulations ((This is as good a place as any to start.)) and we continue to keep a watching-eye on developments. So we were very pleased to receive a report from Isabel Lopez Noriega, a policy specialist at Bioversity International, about a conference on Ensuring Seed Availability in the 21st Century, held in Brussels on 18 March 2009. Doubly pleased, because she agreed that we could post it here. Thanks Isabel.

The EU registration and certification system is built around two basic conditions: first, plant varieties have to be distinct and meet certain level of uniformity and stability (DUS conditions, for distinct, uniform and stable). In addition, the EU legislation requests varieties to show their satisfactory value for cultivation and use (VCU).

Civil society organizations representing small farmers, organic food producers and environmentalists have criticized EU legislation because these basic requirements do not take the needs and practices of small producers and amateurs into consideration and may go against genetic diversity conservation principles in general. Landraces and varieties developed by farmers and others may not meet DUS and VCU requirements. Very often, valuable family populations developed by farmers do not pass the uniformity test due to their heterogeneity. This characteristic offers better resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses, but the strict uniformity rules prevent the variety being sold in the European market. Another common limitation for small farmers wanting to commercialize their varieties’ seeds is that they cannot afford the costs and long procedures required by the registration and certification processes. In addition to limiting the opportunities for farmers to obtain revenues from the varieties they produce, this situation results in less genetic diversity available for farmers in the common European market and may ultimately threaten diversity on farms.

Aware of the fact that the scenario which inspired current legislation has changed and that, nowadays agricultural production faces different problems, the European Commission decided to conduct an external evaluation of the EU legislation on the marketing of seed and plant propagating material in 2008, with the aim of establishing how effective and efficiently the legislation has met its original objectives and identifying its strengths and areas for improvement with regard to potential new challenges affecting this field, including genetic diversity conservation. As part of this exercise, the external evaluators consulted a range of stakeholders and experts through surveys and face-to-face interviews. ((Results of the survey and other conference documents can be downloaded from the conference web site.)) Approximately 130 people representing different sectors involved in agricultural production attended the conference to discuss the results and recommendations.

When assessing the impacts of EU legislation on different elements of agricultural production, the evaluators asked stakeholders about the effects on the preservation of plant genetic resources in the EU. According to the consultation’s results, most stakeholders consider that the legislation has had a positive impact, although they did not provide any evidence.

It is important to highlight that the evaluators’ methodology had some important limitations that hindered the participation of certain types of users. For example, the questionnaires were available only in English and only on-line (except for those stakeholders who were directly addressed by the evaluators). These limitations made the evaluation tools unfriendly for small farmers in remote areas of Europe. It is also not clear to what extent evaluators consulted research institutes and universities.

The Commission has already announced that the current legislation will experience a profound reform. If the evaluation’s results inspire the reform of the EU seed law, it is difficult to predict whether the need to maintain a healthy level of plant genetic diversity in the market and on farmers’ fields will be taken into consideration by the new legislation and whether this need will be translated into a suitable treatment for highly diverse varieties. Most of the users and producers who participated in the evaluation do not consider that certain objectives closely linked to diversity conservation (such as the protection of the environment, low-input agriculture and farm-saved seeds) should be priorities for the new seed law in Europe. At the same time, they do claim that the new legislation facilitates the availability of a broad range of varieties in the European market. Although these two positions seem to be contradictory, this is not always the case as a greater number of varieties does not automatically mean a greater genetic diversity. Many of the improved varieties of the same crop currently available in the European market do not differ much among themselves at the genetic level. This shows that diversity cannot be measured by the number of varieties alone.

Although small farmers and organic farmers’ organizations make themselves heard in current dialogues and negotiations dealing with seed legislation, their interests are still considered marginal by the European Commission in comparison to those of seed companies and large scale producers, who represent almost the whole volume of the European seed market. This sector does not seem to advocate a radical change in the current legislation. The vast majority upholds seed law in relation to the traditional principles of productivity, quality and transparency and is reluctant to include new objectives such as sustainability. In general terms, they are in favor of maintaining the current registration and certification schemes, but adjusting them according to the type of crops. In both the evaluation’s results and at the conference seed companies and medium and large scale producers clearly stated that they would not like to see further differentiations according to the final use of the seed or the type of users, which would perhaps be the best way to protect small-scale producers’ interests and, consequently, diversity.

As the Commission and the EU member states develop a new seed system for Europe, the impact of such a system on plant genetic erosion must be subjected to serious and profound research. A number of existing studies and the results of the evaluation’s survey may offer some preliminary conclusions, but these need to be validated through in depth analyses.