- EcoregionsTreeFinder—A Global Dataset Documenting the Abundance of Observations of > 45,000 Tree Species in 828 Terrestrial Ecoregions. The right native tree for your ecoregion of choice. Which, given lots of the stuff below, is good to know. Oh, and BTW, there’s also the Agroforestry Species Switchboard.
- Modelling the distribution of plant-associated microbes with species distribution models. Would be cool to mash up with the above one day.
- The promise of digital herbarium specimens in large-scale phenology research. Something else you can use herbarium specimens for, if you’re careful.
- A global indicator of species recovery. The Green Status Index of Species Recovery, no less. Herbaria surely involved again.
- Valorization of feral pigs in the tropics, from the genetic characterization to the re- domestication. Wish there was a Green Status Index of Breed Recovery.
- Global staple food trade exacerbates biodiversity loss: a network perspective. Soybeans are messing with the Green Status Index of Species Recovery of lots of species, I suspect.
- Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospects for self-sufficiency are not bad, but will require yield increases if the Green Status Index of Species Recovery is not going to take a hit.
- Protecting crops with plant diversity: Agroecological promises, socioeconomic lock-in, and political levers. Agroforestry and diverse landscapes are best for pest control, but cultivar mixtures are worth a try too. Wonder what they will do for cereal self-sufficiency in Africa. I lot, I bet, if given a chance.
- The dynamics of crop diversity and seed use in the context of recurrent climate shocks and poverty: Seasonal panel data evidence from rural Uganda. Farmers use crop diversity to cope with climate change, and wealthy farmers do it better. Pest control too, maybe?
- Understanding Farmer Preferences to Guide Crop Improvement: The Case of Grasspea in Ethiopia. Breeders should provide jam today and jam tomorrow.
- Crop diversity trends captured by Indigenous and local knowledge: introduction to the symposium. Indigenous and local knowledge can help you keep track of all of the above.
Is the avocado toast?
Jeremy’s latest newsletter saves me including an interesting paper on the domestication of avocado in a forthcoming Brainfood.
The often humid climate of the tropics means that ancient plant remains are few and far between, making it difficult to trace the long-term history of crops there. Thanks to a dry rock shelter in western Honduras, which preserved “an unparalleled sequence of radiocarbon-dated avocado remains,” researchers have now rewritten its ancient history. The paper is paywalled; I found out about it because one of the universities involved has just published a popular account, which in turn led me to an earlier popular report from another of the universities.
Two key milestones emerged. First, people were tending wild avocado trees as far back as 11,000 years ago. And by 7500 years ago, they had begun to select for larger fruits with tougher skins. Those ages reveal a bigger surprise; they predate the arrival of maize. The standard view is that as maize spread to new locations, it transformed foragers into farmers. The new results show that people were “fully engaged in tree cultivation upon maize’s arrival”.
The research also has a message for the modern avocado industry, 90% of whose fruits are of the single Hass variety. Because they are multiplied as clonal offsets, those trees are all genetically identical and thus all equally vulnerable to any pest, disease or climate change that affects them. The researchers point out that farmers grew avocados from seedlings for millennia, and that much of that genetic diversity lingers in remaining relict populations. As Amber VanDerwarker, lead researcher on the study, points out:
Developing new varieties through seed selection of modern domesticates and wild relict populations growing throughout Central America may provide more success in adapting trees to these changing landscapes than clonal propagation alone.
Rice, rich folks, and (small) reasons for hope
How much trouble is agriculture facing because of climate change?
There are lots of studies out there that seek to predict the effects of changes in rainfall or temperature on the yield of this or that crop, in this or that part of the world. There are even plenty of studies that look at what might happen to a whole bunch of crops on a global scale.
But they pretty much all have the drawback that they don’t take into account that farmers could in fact adapt, whether by changing crop or variety, or the way they manage their crops, for example through more irrigation. They may end up doing ok, at least with some crops in some places.
That’s a pretty big drawback, because it makes it difficult to prioritize.
But it’s also difficult to know what do about it. Farmers could potentially do a million different things, and even neighbouring farmers might do quite different things. How do you figure out what the effect on yields will be of all these things, everywhere?
A major global study in Nature has just tackled the problem by forgetting about the “what” and focusing on the “how much.” 1
The authors looked at the yields over time of six staple crops — cassava, maize, rice, sorghum, soyabeans and wheat, or two thirds of global calories — across 12,600 regions of the world. They then calculated how well farmers have actually been coping with increasing temperatures, irrespective of what specifically they are doing, and then projected that level of success into an even warmer future.
The findings are striking. Adaptation is happening, but just not enough. It can maybe alleviate 23% of global losses in 2050 and 34% at the end of the century; or 6% and 12%, respectively, for a moderate-emissions scenario. That’s worth having, but still leaves us with a mountain to climb. We’re going to have to keep breeding better crops, faster, and we’ll need the diversity in genebanks to do that.
I see two bright spots of hope in the gloom. One is that rice is predicted to do ok. And the other is that while the world’s poorest are as usual predicted to take a big hit, so are the world’s richest. Which might encourage them to actually do something about it.
Noah? No way!
In the latest GROW webinar, Prof. Stef de Haan, of the International Potato Centre and more recently Wageningen University and Research, explains how genebanks alone won’t preserve crop diversity adequately unless linked with farmer custodians, local seed systems, and policy spaces. Sounds like he also falls squarely in the middle in the old Erna vs Otto bunfight.
To save you googling, the Rikuy Agrobio website he mentions, with the community-level tools for monitoring crop diversity, is here. And you can explore potato diversity in on-farm hotspots on wikiPapa here. Both only in Spanish so far, but well worth looking into. Fascinating stuff, and obviously valuable, but I do wonder how to scale up this sort of thing to all crops, everywhere.
Brainfood: Protein, AnGR, Indian chickens, US Mashona cattle, Asiatic wild ass, European Neolithic pigs, Low methane pastures, American dogs, Baker’s yeast, Lager yeast
- Links between protein-source diversity, household behavior, and protein consumption inadequacy in the Indian rural semi-arid tropics. More diversity in protein sources, including livestock, would probably lead to more consumption, especially if linked to more education on its importance.
- Integrating Local and Indigenous Animal Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (LIAnGRFA) into global biodiversity governance. We wont keep livestock diversity for long if we don’t integrate its conservation into existing mechanisms.
- Introduction to chicken genetic resources of India: a comprehensive review. India seems to agree with the above, at least with regards to its chickens, and is doing something about it.
- Out of Africa: genetic characterization and diversity of Mashona cattle in the United States. Something will certainly have to be done about the Mashona in the US if its interesting but limited diversity is to survive.
- Impacts of Climate-Land Dynamics on Global Population and Sub-Populations of a Desert Equid. Ditto for the Asiatic wild ass, although I suppose its contribution to human protein supply is pretty safe.
- Archaeogenomic insights into commensalism and regional variation in pig management in Neolithic northwest Europe. Even Neolithic European farmers managed the diversity of their livestock, pigs in this case.
- Agronomic performance, herbage quality, methane yield and methane emission potential of pasture mixtures. All those diverse livestock might as well be eating the sort of feed that leads to lower methane emissions.
- Ancient dog mitogenomes support the dual dispersal of dogs and agriculture into South America. Domestic dogs were taken into South America along with maize, according to their genetic structure. No word on whether they were used as protein sources.
- Footprints of Human Migration in the Population Structure of Wild Baker’s Yeast. Saccharomyces cerevisiae is something else whose genetic structure was heavily influenced by early farmers, and indeed continues to be by modern farming.
- Revealing the ancient origins of blonde beers: Phylogeography and phylogenetics of cryotolerant fermentative yeast Saccharomyces eubayanus from pre-Hispanic pottery in Northwestern Patagonia, Argentina. Did those early South American farmers ferment their maize, I wonder? They had the yeast for it, which eventually made it to Europe and gave us lager. And no, beer is not a good protein source.