There are no opportunity crops

At least, not in any biological sense.

No plant is born an “opportunity crop.” It becomes one when somebody finds a way to make its particular combination of characteristics valuable, in a particular context.

That does not make the term useless. It can be a convenient way to describe crops whose potential seems underdeveloped, or whose qualities come to matter more under changing climates, diets and markets. But the phrase can also mislead. It can make opportunity sound like something that resides in a species or variety.

But consider the Georgia peach. Today, the US state of Georgia is almost synonymous with peaches, at least to Americans. But it was not always so. The fruit arrived in North America with the Spanish in the mid-1500s1, spreading rapidly through the Southeast from seed, almost weed-like. For generations, peaches were mostly a local resource, made into pies, fed to livestock or turned into brandy.

As William Thomas Okie recounts in a recent piece in Smithsonian Magazine, it took deliberate selection and breeding, better production practices, research, transport and access to distant markets to turn the peach into a commercial industry — and eventually the icon it is today.

The lesson is not that peaches are in any way special. It’s almost the opposite.

When we talk about “opportunity crops” in the Global South, we often seem to be looking for crops that already possess a particular combination of characteristics: nutritious, climate resilient, locally adapted, culturally valued and perhaps capable of generating income.
But why should opportunity be an intrinsic property of a crop?

All crops contain genetic variation. Some of that variation may become valuable because of a new breeding objective, a new processing technology, a change in consumer preferences, a new market or simply changing environmental conditions.

We cannot know all of those opportunities in advance. Nobody knew in advance that the peach presented an opportunity in the American South.

The Georgia peach story also reminds us that an opportunity is not necessarily an opportunity for all. That industry developed within a society shaped by slavery and racial inequality, and its commercial success depended on agricultural labourers who didn’t much share in the value they helped create. If a neglected African crop becomes commercially valuable, who controls the breeding, seed, processing and markets. Who gets paid?

This does not mean that every crop deserves the same investment. Resources are limited, and choices have to be made. But it does suggest that the most useful question may not be “Which crops are opportunity crops?” but rather “Where is there diversity from which new opportunities could be created?”

This is why we need genebanks. They preserve options, not predictions. A crop or variety that looks unremarkable today may contain a characteristic that becomes valuable tomorrow.

Perhaps, then, we should stop thinking of opportunity crops as a special category of crops, waiting to be discovered. The real opportunity lies in maintaining enough diversity across all crops to keep our options open for whatever the future may bring.

Brainfood: The diverse lives and times of crop diversity

What is maize good for?

Two pieces of work on maize I recently came across are unconnected as to aim and place, but nevertheless make for an interesting combined story. One asks how far maize yield can actually be pushed by the environment; the other, how far we should define its success by yield anyway.

The first study is a systematic analysis of more than 14,000 yield observations across sub-Saharan Africa. It finds that maize generally produces more grain than pearl millet, even in relatively dry environments. That complicates the familiar story that the traditional, hardy millet simply “beats” the relative newcomer, more pernickety maize in marginal conditions. And you know how much we love complicating a conventional story here.

But, heaping complication upon complication, there is a catch: maize’s performance is much less consistent. Its high yields are associated in part with hybrids and the input packages that accompany them, whereas pearl millet produces yields that are lower, sure, but also more stable. And grain weight leaves quite a lot out anyway: millet brings higher levels of iron, zinc and protein. The authors therefore argue that comparing cereal crops by yield alone can obscure their actual advantage to farmers, under their own conditions. That’s been a recurrent theme with us here, actually, come to think of it.

The Philippine experience described in the second study makes a similar point from the farmer’s side of the equation. In Laguna, farmers evaluating maize varieties did not rank them simply by how many tonnes they produced. They cared about taste, culinary uses, familiarity, nutritional value, market prospects and climate resilience as well as yield. The authors recommend involving farmers in local testing and breeding efforts, rather than treating them as merely the final recipients of fancy new varieties.

Put together, the two stories suggest a useful way of thinking about the potential, and the limits, of maize — and indeed any other crop for that matter. Maize is remarkably productive and adaptable, and the evidence does not support writing it off completely in dry conditions. But its apparent superiority depends strongly on what we measure, where we grow it, and what we put into the system.

A tonne of maize produced with expensive hybrid seed and inputs is not necessarily a better outcome than a more modest but more dependable harvest of millet; nor is a variety that comes out on top in a yield trial necessarily the variety a farmer most wants to eat, sell or grow next year.

Maize can do a great deal, but its real potential emerges only when yield is considered alongside stability, inputs, nutrition, markets and, ultimately, what the people growing and consuming it really want.

Sometimes, in some places, even maize can be an opportunity crop. Other times, not so much. And that goes for millet too.

Terere, in more ways than one



Terere (amaranth) is mainly a traditional leafy green vegetable in Kenya of course…
…and readily available these days in supermarkets.



But it’s interesting to see the grain also used…
…in lots of interesting products.

Quite the veggie revolution in the last 10 years2, but have we now reached peak terere?

I mean, how much more land is there?

Cassava on a roll?



Is it me, or are there more cassava products…
…in Kenyan supermarkets these days?

Production has been up and down, though on a generally rising trend, mainly due to expansion of the area of cultivation, apparently.

Climate change could be one driver. But so, presumably, are disease-resistant varieties, promotion pushes, and a growing appetite for cheap calories. Including in the form of crisps.