The perils of diversification

Alex Tiller forecasts a price spike in the cost of salads and melons in the US this summer as a result of a drought in California’s Central Valley. Farmers are abandoning those crops to save water for even more valuable crops, like almonds. Tiller suggests that

The coming cost spikes in lettuce and melon may provide incentives for growers outside the “melon belt” to invest in the production of these popular fruit and vegetable crops.

Right. But unless those farmers can fashion some kind of new deal with their buyers they’ll be able to kiss goodbye to their investment and their income just as soon as California gets another normally wet season, which it will, soon enough. Prices will plummet, and the buyers will abandon (more) local suppliers to save a couple of cents. You mark my words.

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Michael Bell on Frankia and Alnus:

I have started a truly wild project – developing alder as a grain crop! <snip> I would be very grateful for living material, cuttings or seeds. If the place where trees which meet my needs can be described, I can go and get it myself. The plan is to copy the “Open Source” ideas of Linux and similar computer systems. All those who contribute material will be offered the results of my work.

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New and worse (nutritionally speaking)

Speaking of heirloom tomatoes, everyone will tell you that the tomatoes of their youth tasted better than they do today. Depends on the tomato, I’m sure, but in general that seems a safe bet, especially if you’re comparing something ugly fresh-picked from the garden with a supermarket beauty. Now, it seems, the older variety may have packed a superior nutritional punch too.

A fascinating paper to be published in HortScience Review by Donald R. Davis, who recently retired from the University of Texas, compares the mineral content of fruits and vegetables over the past 50 years or so. Davis looks at three types of evidence. First, the so-called dilution effect: the more yields increase, thanks to fertilizers, irrigation and other external inputs, the lower the concentrations of many minerals in the harvested part. Secondly, looking at historical food composition tables, older measurements tend to be higher than new ones, for many fruits and vegetables. Third, and most interesting, side-by-side comparisons of old and new varieties, grown today and measured in identical fashion, also show declines from old to new. This is effectively a “genetic” dilution effect. The increase in yield has been achieved by genetic selection, not environmental inputs, but the impact seems to be the same.

These last are perhaps the most convincing. Alas, they are also the most scarce. Broccoli varieties show a decline in calcium and magnesium. Wheat varieties likewise showed a decline in minerals, protein and oil from older varieties to newer. And three amino acids were lower in modern maize varieties than in older selections. Davis writes:

Recent studies of historical nutrient content data for fruits and vegetables spanning 50 to 70 years show apparent median declines of 5% to 40% or more in minerals, vitamins, and protein in groups of foods, especially in vegetables. Although these apparent declines in individual nutrients may be confounded by systematic errors in historical data, the broad evidence is consistent with more definitive studies and seems difficult to dismiss.

Without getting into the reasons for these results — almost certainly they relate to the fact that recent breeding efforts seldom target nutrients — one thing seems clear. More data would be useful. Would it be too much to ask genebanks, who often regenerate a time-series of accessions in a single year, to consider making part of the harvest available for detailed chemical analysis?