- Long article on the politics (and more) of maize in Mexico.
- Yet more on the slow comeback of millets in (parts of) India.
- International Conference on Pollinator Biology, Health and Policy on July 24-28, 2010 at Penn State.
- Hunted ungulates are semi-domesticated.
- “…psychoactive plant toxins were a mundane occurrence in the environments of hominid evolution, and our ancestors may have been exploiting plant drugs for very long periods of time.”
- “I was confronted with centrefolds showing downy, smooth petals and moistened, hot-pink lips that pouted in the direction of tautly curved shafts and heavily veined pouches.”
Swap crops and feed 9 billion people
From Jacob van Etten.
Some demographic projections tell us that global population numbers will grow to 9 billion in 2100 and stabilize around this number. So how can people three generations down the line feed themselves, while still conserving biodiversity?
Lian Pin Koh offers a solution based on simple economic principles. Grow the most productive crop to produce cereal, oil or protein, and grow each crop where it grows best. He presents an interactive world map to demonstrate that no extra land needs to be taken into production to feed 9 billion people.
The results are interesting. Strikingly, Brazil is doing just fine. Just a bit more of rice and Brazilian agriculture is optimal. Other countries need to change drastically. North European countries need to switch from barley to wheat. Canada and Russia need to abolish wheat agriculture and adopt maize. West Africa and the Cono Sur needs to grow more rice but northern South America and the US need to grow more maize. Yields will go up automagically, as each crop is planted on land that is more suited to it, fulfilling the dream of the 1980s land use evaluators.
The study is still in preparation and no background info on the methodology is available yet. Transport costs and climate change do not seem to be taken into account. “Optimal” seems to refer to yields per hectare, not to labour and inputs. Overall, the trend seems to be towards more high-yielding crops, which also require more inputs. With more people, more labour is available. But other inputs, like water, are limited.
Another question would be why crop use is sub-optimal now. Is it trade barriers? Cultural preferences and agricultural traditions? Or is it economics, really?
There is of course more to conservation than making agriculture more efficient. Another study shows that intensifying land use does not in fact put a break on crop land expansion. Additional measures would be needed to ensure that more efficiency indeed stops crops taking over non-agricultural land, and impacting biodiversity.
Even so, this is an interesting thought experiment. In an ideal world, swapping crops is enough to raise crop production some 30%. Feeding 9 billion people suddenly appears a bit easier.
Nibbles: Allium, Desertification and livestock, Striga, Emmer, Hawaii, Almond, Seeds at FAO, Cassava in central Africa, Seed sculpture, Biofortification, Millets, Lunatrick pea
- Botany Photo of the Day is an onion wild relative! Pretty.
- More on that livestock-can-help-reduce-desertification thing, this time from Scientific American.
- Breeding Striga-resistant sorghum. Whatever it takes to protect local beer, boffin-dudes!
- Emmer wheat reviewed to bits.
- No passport data for your barley? Fear not.
- Rachel Laudan ably defends Hawaiian food.
- Origins of almond traced to Iran. Not for the first time.
- Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture: A Commons Perspective. Presentation from our friends at FAO.
- Presentation on the untapped potential of cassava in the Great Lakes region of Africa. One of many from CIAT lately. Check out their stuff on beans too.
- The Seed Cathedral of Shanghai. Thanks to those public awareness wizards at Kew.
- Big shindig on biofortification. Be there, or be malnourished.
- Times of India bangs the drum for nutritious millets.
- Yet more loveliness from serious amateur pea breeder Rebsie Fairholm.
The return of ex situ
Although some have emphasized the need to breed crops for future climatic conditions, much of the world’s farming population relies on landrace populations, not formal breeding networks.
Undeniable, of course, and a good reason to not forget landraces (farmers’ local varieties) when thinking about how agriculture will (or will not) adapt to climate change. The new paper by Kristin Mercer and Hugo Perales in Evolutionary Applications from which the above quotation is taken (minus the references for clarity, as with all subsequent quotes) won’t let you forget. ((Mercer, K., & Perales, H. (2010). Evolutionary response of landraces to climate change in centers of crop diversity Evolutionary Applications DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-4571.2010.00137.x))
The authors look in some detail at each of the possible responses that landraces may have to climate change. They could simply “adjust their phenotype” (plasticity). Or they could adjust their genotype, otherwise known as evolution, and thus “keep up” with the climate. They could also migrate to more hospitable places. And, finally, they could die out (extinction).
What will determine which of these routes any particular landrace follows? Mercer and Perales think two main factors need to be considered: the level and pattern of adaptive genetic variation in the landrace, and the details of how climate, and therefore selection pressures, will actually change. They say they recognize that what farmers do will also determine the outcome, but somewhat disappointingly leave a discussion of that to a later date. They list about a dozen quite specific research questions that would need to be tackled to “understand how landraces in crop centres of diversity may respond to climate change,” which I’ll reproduce in full for those who don’t have access to the paper (they’re in Box 1).
Genetic structure
• Is available genetic variation appropriate for evolutionary response to climate change, especially for selfing or clonal crops?
• At what rate will evolution proceed given heritability of traits and strength of selection?
• Might there be constraints on evolution to multiple environmental changes given the genetic correlations among traits?
• Is there capacity for evolution of plasticity?
• Might populations be plastic in response to climate change, especially for selfing or clonal crops?
• Will different types within a species, or landraces from different regions, respond differently?
• Will adaptive or novel variation be available to populations for evolution based on patterns of gene flow and mutation rates?
• Would gene flow from improved varieties improve or reduce the evolutionary potential or plastic response of landrace populations?Climate change patterns
• What aspects of climate change will impose directional, disruptive, or fluctuating selection?
• Could selection be strong enough to reduce genetic variation within or among populations?
• Could it reduce effective population size or cause major mortality, which should reduce genetic variation?
• Would yearly variability in selection reduce genetic variation or lead to greater plasticity?
That’s a nice research agenda to be getting on with. I was particularly interested in three specific observations made by the authors. The first is that “[f]armer-mediated selection may … contradict natural selection.”
…farmers could select for seed characteristics, such as grain size, which, if negatively correlated with the tolerance to heat during the grain filling stage, could reduce the populations’ productivity in high temperatures.
The second is that
Migration or gene flow could facilitate adaptation and maintenance of productivity with climate change because gene flow can introduce novel variation into landrace populations on which selection can act. (Mutation can also introduce novel and potentially adaptive variation, which could be selected upon as climate shifts.) In contrast, gene flow could constrain adaptation if there is repeated introduction of alleles from maladapted landrace populations.
Where would such non-maladapted material come from? The authors don’t really discuss this question, but we suggested in a recent paper that in many situations the source may well be a different country.
Finally, the authors point out that “since climate change is promised to introduce new extremes in temperature,” the resulting “strong bouts of selection” are quite likely to cause extreme narrowing of genetic diversity in landraces when they don’t cause their extinction.
These points, and indeed others, could only lead to one conclusion as far as I was concerned, and I read on anxiously to see whether the authors would agree. Finally, on the penultimate paragraph, the money quote arrived:
Ex situ conservation could regain primary importance despite the fact that it is an already over-taxed system. Yet climate change promises to complicate the decisions of which locations are most appropriate for grow-outs.
Remember that the paper is written very much from the perspective of in situ conservation. To see the importance of genebanks extolled so clearly in such a context, and the complexity of their operations highlighted to boot, was very welcome, and I must say somewhat unexpected. Are we beginning to move back towards a recognition of the essential complementarity and inter-dependence of ex situ and on farm conservation?
Rice, baby, rice!
Another contribution from Don Strong of UC Davis.
A fascinating video has appeared on Vimeo, “Filipino Rice Policy.” The topic of agricultural biodiversity is just below the surface of the narrative. The commentators are sophisticated economists and bureaucrats who tell an intriguing story of what amounts to a cult of rice in the Philippines. The crop and the commodity are sacrosanct politically, with secretive and lucrative importation monopolies. The commentary highlights the fact that even with a long history of premier educational and research institutions in tropical agriculture as well as high yields of rice, in few of the last 100 years has Philippine production been sufficient to meet domestic demand. The popular image of rice as the mainstay to the economy and the officially encouraged yearning for rice self-sufficiency are misleading, according to the narrative. First, the country simply lacks the physical land for rice self-sufficiency. It cannot compete in volume with the vast rice-growing areas in mainland Asia (many of which Philippine institutions fostered during the heady days of the early Green Revolution). Also, rice is just one among many crops and commodities in the diverse agricultural economy of the Philippines.
The main theme is that the government importation monopoly for rice is part and parcel of high level corruption that actually threatens food security. It is claimed that some 40% of monies dedicated to importation end up in the pockets of privileged insiders — “cronies” — rather than in the rice bowls of the poor; though the the poor are the prima facie rationale for the importation monopoly. The argument is made that were rice importation opened up, the diversity of agricultural production would increase as farmers made market-based decisions rather than monopoly-based ones; other crops and animals produce more income as well as a richer life for rural agriculturalists. This video is a professional product, well edited, and lively. The dialogue is nuanced and often waxes into advanced political economics. It would be a great supplement to graduate courses in agricultural economics, development, and environmental science. A highlight is disagreement with the theme by one commentator who fears that an end to the monopoly could bring collapse to the rice market, disaster to the country, and the downfall of the politicians who broke the monopoly. While breaking the monopoly would certainly be politically perilous, the Philippines is not among the largest global players in rice. It seems unlikely that their monopoly could be much of a factor in the global rice market.
An important sub theme of the video is how the pro-natalist policies of the Philippines have made food security an increasingly difficult goal. These populations are now much larger, still growing, and a much greater challenge to both poverty reduction and future food security than they were in 1960 when the Green Revolution widely lowered death rates and led to rapid population growth. Persistent poverty of a segment of the agricultural sector is a feature shared by many of the rice economies.
In larger perspective, the Philippines are not alone with such myths. The quixotic propaganda of rice self-sufficiency for the Philippines is analogous to that of oil self sufficiency for the US so prominent in slogans such as “Drill Baby Drill.”