Opening up

[T]hose pathways of change favoured by the least powerful are typically the most excluded.

In agricultural research, as in many other areas of science, there is often a tension between different points of view. Most strident, perhaps, and one that we generally avoid, are the slanging matches over GMOs. But there are others that do concern us: participatory or “scientific” breeding; private or public seed supply systems; ex-situ or in-situ conservation; monocropping or multicropping; benefit-sharing, what and with whom? You can think of others. I’m not going to attempt to resolve any of those. I am, instead, going to point to a very recent paper: Opening Up the Politics of Knowledge and Power in Bioscience. Andy Stirling, at the University of Sussex in England, looks at different ways in which the discussions are approached determines so much more than just the “answers” obtained. I’m not even going to attempt to give a gloss. Instead, I’ll just highlight a few passages that resonated with me, and hope that they stimulate discussion.

[I]n deciding which innovations to pursue in agriculture (technological or social), it cannot be assumed that any one aim is paramount—whether the issue is respecting the cultural attributes of food, maximizing world protein production, commercial revenues in supply chains, combating climate change, or sustaining hard-pressed livelihoods. All are valid concerns, but not all can be maximized together. Although participation may improve mutual understanding and appreciation among stakeholders, even the most inclusive or co-operative practices cannot definitively reconcile underlying contrasting interests.

It can be difficult for those wed to probabilitistic approaches, to accept the distinction between risk and uncertainty. … These challenges of ambiguity differ from uncertainty, because they apply even after outcomes have already occurred. For example, much of the controversy over genetically modified organisms concerns not the likelihood of some agreed form of harm, but fundamentally different understandings of what harm actually means (e.g., in terms of threats variously to human health, ecological integrity, agronomic diversity, indigenous food cultures, sustainable rural livelihoods, vulnerability to climate change, control of intellectual property, or global industrial distribution).

[I]n a globalising world, the stakes are further raised by corporate concentration and pressures for harmonization and standardization (as championed by the World Trade Organization). For instance, though alternative trajectories are biologically feasible in agricultural seed production — and potentially economically viable and socially realizable — incentive structures for large corporations in global markets favour strategies that assert intellectual property (IP) or otherwise maximize profits in a supply chain. This helps explain the conventional industrial emphasis on hybrid varieties and preference for IP-intensive transgenics. Other technical approaches may also be relatively neglected for narrow commercial reasons, like forms of cisgenics (using similar techniques within species and varieties) or apomixis (allowing greater farmer selection using asexual reproduction) or marker-assisted methods (augmenting conventional breeding with advanced genetics). Equally knowledge-intensive social and institutional innovations are even more disadvantaged—especially those emphasising the interests of marginal groups (like participatory breeding, noncommercial extension practices, or microfinanced indigenous production). In these ways, momentum along particular innovation pathways is driven more by political economy than scientific inevitability. These path-dependent choices are not just about “sound science” and technical optimization, but the exercise of political power.

Good, thoughtful way to start the year, and I hope you won’t think me too lazy for just cutting and pasting, but there didn’t seem to be any value in anything else.

A new year dawns for the British apple

The famous British apple collection at Brogdale in Kent, which has been through some vicissitudes this past year, and could do with some good news, is being replanted, and the BBC has a video. Incidentally, I recently learned that the composer Gerald Finzi assembled a selection of heirloom varieties at his country house, Church Farm, Ashmansworth, near Newbury, Berkshire, and that these are included in the national collection at Brogdale, or at least they were. I hope they still are, because Church Farm has been on the market and who knows if the new owner is interested in the likes of Russet, Roxbury Russet, Welford Park Nonsuch, Baxter’s Pearmain, Golden Non Pareil, Mead’s Broading, Norman’s Pippin and Haggerstone Pippin.

Church forests in Ethiopia

For ages now scientists and others have spoken about working with sacred spaces, such as temple groves, to conserve the biodiversity they harbour. At a PLoS blog (which bills itself as “Diverse perspectives on science and medicine”) is a fascinating account of a very special set of sacred forests and recent attempts to improve their conservation.

Followers of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Churches believe they should maintain a home for all of God’s creatures around their places of worship. The result? Forests ringing churches.

There are some 35,000 church forests in Ethiopia, ranging in size from a few acres to 300 hectares. Some churches and their forests may date back to the fourth century, and all are remnants of Ethiopia’s historic Afromontane forests. To their followers, they are a sacred symbol of the garden of Eden — to be loved and cared for, but not worshipped.

Read the full article and you might agree that “not worshipped” is putting it mildly. The dominant ground insects are dung beetles adapted to work with human material. Latrines will probably do the forests a power of good. As will fences to keep livestock out. But the crucial need will be to work with the local farmers, to ensure that they can grow more on less land, allowing the forests breathing space and maybe even a bit of expansion. To what extent, I wonder, do crops in the surrounding fields depend on ecosystem services such as pollination and pest and disease control provided by the inhabitants of the forests?

Featured: Transhumance

Irish researcher Theresa McDonald has a request:

I am currently researching transhumance in the West of Ireland and would appreciate any information, photographs of this practice in the Mediterranean region of Europe. I am familiar with the Vlach shepherds of Greece and hope to visit the Pindus Mountains sometime in the future.

Can you help her?

Predictions for 2012: maize will be affected by climate

I predict that we (using the term in its widest possible sense) will understand the links between growing conditions and yield much more deeply. In particular, how changes in a plant’s environment will affect its output.

This is based on Heat, Humidity and Crop Yields, a post by Michael J Roberts, who has an economist’s ability to build complex models that explain some things rather well. The latest looks at how much better predictions of yield are when vapour pressure deficit is added to the model. As Roberts explains:

Vapor pressure deficit, a close cousin to relative humidity, has a linear relationship with evaporation, and is a key input in many crop models.

The point is that VPD is not that easy to measure, but that if you manage to do so, it is very handy.

There are two interesting things about the VPD measure we construct. First, average VPD for July and August is closely associated with our best-fitting extreme heat measure, at least in Illinois. Second, adding VPD for the season and VPD for July and August to our standard regression greatly improves prediction. Using just five variables, these two plus growing degree days (degree days between 10C and 29C), extreme heat degree days (degree days above 29C) and precipitation, we can explain over 70 percent of the variance of Illinois yields, excluding the upward trend. That’s better than USDA’s August and September forecasts, which are based on field-level samples and farmer interviews. The model can explain almost half the difference between the August forecast and the final yield for Illinois.

OK, so it is only in Illinois. And only for maize. But it might yet end up improving crop prediction models more generally.

This would appear to be post No. 5000. That it deals not with agrobiodiversity but with the effects of climate change on a single species, and probably very few varieties of that species, seems rather fitting.