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We’re moving house so this might be the last post for a while. See you on the other side. In the meantime, enjoy this bunch of papers on different applications of spatial analysis to agricultural biodiversity and associated topics.
- Addressing global hotspots of drought-related crop production losses. A crop-specific drought sensitivity metric for 17 major crops finds rainfed production losses of 10% globally under historically observed extremes, enough to feed 2 billion people, with hotspots in the US Midwest, eastern Brazil, the Mediterranean and South Asia. Sustainable irrigation expansion and crop switching could avoid 60% of those losses. No word on varietal change, but I’m sure it would help.
- GEM-Forest: A Global satellite EMbedding–based map of forests and tree crops for 2020. Using Google DeepMind’s Alpha Earth Foundation embeddings, this 10 m global dataset classifies forest, non-forest and tree crop areas with 90% accuracy, showing that lightweight classifiers on satellite embeddings 1 can rival more complex forest-monitoring pipelines built to support things like the EU Deforestation Regulation.
- Global distribution of cattle, horses, goats, sheep and buffaloes at 1 km resolution for 2000–2022 based on subnational census data and spatiotemporal machine learning. Harmonizing 55,336 census polygons across 147 countries produces annual 1 km livestock headcount and density layers for five species, letting users track shifting grazing pressure over more than two decades rather than relying on single-year snapshots. 2
- A Spatial-Econometric Analysis of Fruit Tree Diversity in Lebanon: A contextual framework for supporting smallholder farmers. How geography, socio-economic conditions and local context shape fruit tree diversity in Lebanon, helping identify where interventions could best support smallholder resilience.
- High-resolution mapping of rice cropping pattern, intensity, calendar, and ecosystem type across Southeast Asia. Joins the growing pile of fine-resolution rice products for the region, this one distinguishing not just how many harvests a field gets but which rice ecosystem (irrigated, rainfed, upland) it belongs to. Is which variety is being grown next on the agenda?
- Entrenchment of cropping patterns reinforces climate exposure for certain crops in US. County-level analysis of US cropping decisions finds that climate risk has actually risen for some crops (like rainfed soybeans) even as it fell for others, suggesting economic and policy incentives are keeping farmers planted in increasingly climate-mismatched patterns rather than nudging them toward the drought-sensitivity-driven switching the first paper above models.
Nibbles: Apple-banana paradox, Genebanks, Indian wheat, Indian wild rice, Kenya community seed banks, Wild coffee, Macadamia history, Taro research, Cacti
- Why the modern food system prizes uniformity even though resilience depends on diversity. Spoiler alert: follow the money.
- Historic crop varieties are finding renewed relevance as farmers contend with more volatile weather, emerging pests and changing markets. Let’s hope there’s money to conserve them.
- India’s traditional wheat varieties contain diversity that could help breeders develop crops better able to withstand heat and drought. Let’s hope there’s money to conserve them.
- India announces significant progress in conserving its wild rice genetic resources. Great that there was money to conserve them.
- Community seed banks across Kenya are calling for formal recognition and sustained support, arguing that locally managed collections strengthen seed sovereignty, preserve traditional varieties and help farming communities adapt to climate change. Yes, but are they enough without national genebanks?
- Researchers are racing to conserve wild coffee species whose genetic diversity may provide the resistance and resilience needed to secure tomorrow’s morning cup. Is the industry contributing, though ?
- New history of the macadamia traces its remarkable journey from Australia’s native forests to a global crop, while underscoring why conserving the remaining wild populations is essential for the crop’s long-term future.
- Researchers at the University of the South Pacific investigate how taro can withstand climate change, combining research with conservation to help protect one of the region’s most culturally and nutritionally important staple crops.
- Chester Zoo collects seeds from highly threatened cacti, because why not?
Brainfood: Diversity of Oats, Cotton, Sugarcane, Rice, Amaranthus, Vegetables, Agroforestry, Value chains
- Genome-wide comparative diversity uncovers population structure, global distribution, and targets of selection in hexaploid oat. A worldwide survey reveals how oat diversity is structured, spread, and shaped by breeding, helping pinpoint untapped genetic resources for future improvement.
- Genomic diversity and the domestication history of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum). Its genome traces cotton’s journey from its wild origins in Mesoamerica while documenting the genetic narrowing that accompanied domestication.
- Genetic architecture of sugarcane traits in a polyploid genomics framework. New genomic tools finally begin to untangle the diversity of one of agriculture’s most genetically complex crops, exposing the basis of traits breeders have long selected largely in the dark.
- Projected warming will exceed the long-term thermal limits of rice cultivation. Rice has historically thrived within remarkably stable climatic boundaries. Those boundaries are now on course to be crossed across major growing regions, with profound implications for global food security. Diversity to the rescue?
- An inter-specific Amaranthus pangenome captures genetic variation potentially underlying key leafy vegetable traits in this underutilised crop. A rich reservoir of previously hidden diversity emerges from across multiple cultivated amaranths, offering breeders new options for improving a neglected but nutritious vegetable.
- Impact of gardening and nutrition support provided to women in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. Even in one of the world’s most challenging humanitarian settings, greater interspecific crop diversity translated into better diets, improved food security, and enhanced wellbeing.
- Designing perennial crop-based agroforestry systems: specificities, challenges, and opportunities. Diversification does not stop at the field edge: how perennial crops can be combined with trees to deliver productive, resilient, and biodiversity-friendly farming systems.
- Towards Nature Positive supply chains: From biodiversity commitments to organisational action. What would it take to move biodiversity from corporate promises to business practice? Maybe the above examples can help turn aspiration into measurable action.
Humble crop beats superfood
Two articles about the contrasting fortunes of Andean crops came out last week. They describe different sides of the same broad story: Indigenous agricultural systems are highly biodiverse and increasingly positioned as climate adaptation strategies, but they are also under pressure.
In Peru, potato farmers in places like the Parque de la Papa are actively conserving thousands of native potato varieties as a form of insurance. This is climate change adaptation: maintaining agrobiodiversity, preserving traditional knowledge, and using resilient crop varieties and farming practices to buffer against warming temperatures, erratic rainfall, and pest and disease pressure. The message is that crop diversity itself is a survival strategy, both ecological and cultural.
The recent history of quinoa in Bolivia shows the same system under a different kind of stress: global demand drove a commodity boom that incentivized monoculture expansion and mechanization, which in turn contributed to soil degradation, erosion and reduced resilience. Coming back from that is proving difficult.
Together, the two cases show that when Indigenous agroecosystems are treated as living repositories of diversity, they can enhance resilience, including to climate change; and that when they are pulled into boom-driven export specialization, that resilience can be undermined. The shared lesson, at least for me, is that climate adaptation in mountain agriculture depends on maintaining ecological and genetic diversity embedded in Indigenous land management systems.
A point that I suspect is highlighted in the book Andean Potatoes and Quinoa: Origin, Current Status and Recipes of Ancestral Crops, also recently announced.
Brainfood: Spatial data edition
- The ClimSat classification system—a global climate classification map based on long-term satellite-derived data. There’s a new global climate classification system in town, and it’s better ecologically than Köppen’s.
- The first global agricultural field boundary map at 10 m resolution. Combined with the above, we can now characterize the climate of every agricultural field in the world.
- GEM-Forest: A Global satellite EMbedding–based map of forests and tree crops for 2020. Do any of those fields have tree crops? And how far is the forest?
- Global annual cropland dynamics 2015–2024. The next time we map agricultural field boundaries, there will probably be more of them.
- Climate-induced range shifts support local plant diversity but don’t reduce extinction risk. Those new agricultural fields will be bad for wild plants.
- ‘SiteTool’: a ‘Shiny’ application for field site selection and evaluation. Cool new tool helps you select geographical sites based on ecological characteristics. Could be used to help decide where to collect or evaluate germplasm. Lots of opportunities for combining with some of the above, I suspect.
- Current and future potential of cassava (Manihot esculenta) in Southern Africa: a scoping review. An example of what you can do when you combine different types of spatial (and other data). The area suitable for cassava in Africa will increase, and there’s lots of scope for higher yields too. If we can combine datasets, soon we’ll know which specific fields to grow it in, for higher production, to protect wild biodiversity…
- Global and regional climate modes modulate armed conflict risk. …and to mitigate the risk of conflict.