Dragon’s blood set to dry up

Having been involved in the botanical exploration of the Indian Ocean island of Socotra back in the early 90s, and also — more recently — having done some ecological niche modeling, I was fascinated to see these interests coincide in a recent paper in Biological Conservation. Italian and Yemeni researchers ((The Italian and Yemeni governments, UNDP and IUCN (among others) are financing a Socotra Conservation and Development Programme. Nothing like that when I was there, of course.)) have modeled the distribution of the Socotran endemic Dracaena cinnabari, the Dragonblood Tree, to predict what might happen to it with climate change. It’s not good. This flagship species, whose resin has been the source of a dye and medicine since antiquity, is looking at a halving of its potential area of distribution, due to drier conditions, and only a couple of its current localities will fall within what will remain suitable. Fortunately, they are near a protected area, and the authors recommend that its boundaries be expanded to include them.

Legalize it?

We’ve blogged before about poppy-growing in Afghanistan. We have here a well-adapted, traditional crop whose cultivation is being — let us say — actively discouraged in its place of origin and highest diversity because of the illicit trade in its product. Meanwhile, the large legal demand for the product is serviced — but by no means fully met — by countries which are much better off and have lots of other options. Legalization and regulation, possibly combined with new varieties with a truncated biosynthetic pathway for morphine, would seem to be an attractive option, at least worth exploring.

Well, a long piece in the website of the US Department of State says no, emphatically. It seems that:

  • the licit market is not lucrative enough
  • there is not sufficient world demand
  • regulation is not feasible in Afghanistan
  • past experience in other countries is not encouraging, and
  • legalization is conterproductive anyway

Even the technological fix is no such thing, apparently. My first thought is that if all the money being poured into interdiction was directed at establishing a regulatory framework, and perhaps even providing subsidies, the whole thing might not perhaps seem so hopeless. Also, if historical experience of legalization is not particularly encouraging, is the experience of prohibition any more so? But it would definitely be worth getting to the bottom of whether there is a worldwide shortage of medical opiates or not. Anyway, see what you think.