Tomatoes in Ghana

Cotton farmer suicides in India get all the press, but three years ago we noted briefly the apparent suicide of tomato growers in Ghana. Today sees a meeting in Accra “for a unique exchange of views on how to revive the strategic but ailing tomato sector.” Farmers, traders, processors, academics and donors will be thrashing out a more strategic approach to the tomato sector in Ghana under the watchful eye of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture and IFPRI (the International Food Policy Research Institute). IFPRI anticipates that:

Improvements across the board could reduce Ghana’s reliance on low-cost imported tomato paste, improve its foreign exchange reserves, and provide employment and development opportunities in poor rural areas.

How many wins is that?

Vaccines, vitamins and er .. lemme see .. vital information!

Michael Specter is a staff writer for The New Yorker, has a book out called Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet, and Threatens Our Lives, and gave a recent TedTalk on The danger of science denial that has created quite a stir, most of it positive. And I’m mostly in accord.

People who refuse to vaccinate their children are indeed free-riding anti-social parasites, no matter what cockamamie reasons they give for their refusal, and those who aid and abet them by stoking fears about the dangers of vaccination are, if anything, worse, because their stupidity is a multiplier that endangers so many more of us.

And yes, people who spend (lots of) good money on vitamins and quack cures and other folderol that is not only not efficacious but sometimes downright harmful are indeed fools, easily parted from their money and probably suffering into the bargain, let alone the leeches who prey on them. ((Not that that’s going to stop me taking my omega-3s.))

But — and here, at last, is where we approach the admittedly catholic tastes of this blog — when Specter turned to the denialism that, he says, condemns million of hungry people to miserable starvation and an early death, I got just the teeniest whiff of inconsistency. What were his chosen examples for the evidence-based decision-making that he wants us to embrace not only for vaccines and vitamins but also for the vital business of feeding people with GMOs? Golden rice and super-cassava.

I kid you not.

It’s true that modern rice varieties lack vitamin A precursors. It’s also true that golden rice 2.0 delivers more carotenoids than version 1.0. But so do many other foods that people can actually grow for themselves, that a diversified agriculture and diet can provide and that are almost certainly cheaper and more sustainable than golden rice. So where, precisely, is the evidence that golden rice is the best, or even a good, solution to the problem of vitamin A deficiency? Specter seems completely unaware that the alternatives even exist, let alone that they could be made available now, everywhere.

Likewise, Specter may not rate cassava all that highly, but the plant provides people with far, far more than the the “empty” calories that Specter assumes. For a start, cassava leaves are widely eaten, and supply many of the nutrients lacking in the tubers. I remember someone telling me that leaves infected with cassava mosaic virus may actually be more palatable and more nutritious than uninfected leaves (although I confess I cannot now find the details). Will one engineered super-cassava be suitable for all the places where it will be needed? How easy will it be to create the huge diversity of super-cassavas that Africa’s diverse growing conditions require?

Let me be absolutely clear. I am not against genetic engineering at all. How could I be, when it is only a tool? Indeed, I think that there are far more pressing problems than fortifying staples that deserve and are being denied a genetic engineering approach. I am not denying that one could deliver more vitamin A and other micronutrients by engineering rice and other staples. I am denying that this is the only way, or even a good way. We’ve been round and round these discussions here and elsewhere. What we really need, and what, I fear, Specter does not want, is a little more investment in the alternatives. It might even prove that I’m completely wrong. In which case I swear I’ll change my mind.

That’s how I use evidence.

Nibbles: Consortium?, Sheep diversity, Sustainable biofuels, Agroforestry, Almonds, Chicken breeding, Restoration, More tree management, Vegetable gardening, Wheat domestication

Quibbling while the world burns

The Soil Association has an ax to grid, sure. But it seems also to have a point — sort of. In a report out a couple of days ago it notes that people have been saying that people have said that food production needs to double by 2050, because of population increase, westernization of consumption patterns and climate change. It then goes on to suggest that people have not said that at all, and that other people should stop saying they had.

Research into the doubling figure shows it doesn’t actually exist in the stated source — and that it is based on a number of incorrect assumptions. The scientific basis for the claims are based on a report which on close inspection actually says production would need to increase by around 70%, not 100%. As the Government states this is a significant difference. The closest the report comes to the doubling claim is projecting that meat consumption in developing countries, except China, could double. The scientific paper that the 50% by 2030 claim is based on appears to have been withdrawn by the authors.

So, first, is this a straw man? It seems not. People really have been quoting the doubling-by-2050 figure.

Second, is it true that the key document usually cited as the source, FAO’s 2006 publication World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050, does not make the doubling claim? Well, you can check for yourself, but I did some rapid searching and found no such claim. The only reference to a doubling or 100% increase by 2050 came in the context of meat consumption in developing countries (minus China) on page 5.

Some of this growth potential will materialize as effective demand and their per capita consumption could double by 2050, i.e. faster than in the past. It is unlikely that other major developing countries will replicate the role played by China in the past in boosting the world meat sector.

The Soil Association report says that the “only specific statements [in the FAO document] about large percentage increases in demand are focused on the developing world (where the increases in population will be) and concerned only with meat and cereal production, not all food.” In particular:

The largest projected increases in food demand are for cereals and for meat and dairy products. For cereals, there is a projected increase of 1 billion tonnes annually over the 2 billion tonnes of 2005, a 50% increase in cereals by 2050.

Which seems an accurate enough precis of the statement on page 5 of the FAO document:

…an increase of world production by another 1.1 billion tonnes annually will be required by 2050 over the 1.9 billion tonnes of 1999/01 (or 1 billion tonnes over the 2 billion of 2005).

But. FAO also says that “the absolute increases involved should not be underestimated” and “[a]chieving it should not be taken for granted, as land and water resources are now more stretched than in the past and the potential for continued growth of yield is more limited.”

So, sure, a 50% increase in cereal production in developing countries is not the same as a doubling of food production globally, and we should not use figures for which the evidence is thin at best. But it still represents a significant challenge, in particular to breeders. I hope the Soil Association is going to help the world meet it, and not just snipe from the sidelines.

Nibbles: China, Andean roots and tubers, pigs, greenhouse gases, locavores, drought, mapping horticulture, 2010 Growing Green Awards, canker, World Bank, threats, cashmere