Climate change risk hotspots mapped

A SciDevNet piece on the report “Humanitarian Implications of Climate Change: Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots” says that

The report, commissioned by CARE International and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), identifies Afghanistan, India, Indonesia and Pakistan as countries particularly vulnerable to extreme weather conditions.

But actually, looking at the map on page 26 from an agrobiodiversity conservation point of view, the countries I’d target — for germplasm collecting, for example — are Mozambique, Madagascar and Vietnam. The authors looked at flood, cyclone and drought risk. These countries are in for all three.

LATER: At least Cuba doesn’t seem to be at much increased threat, which is just as well!

An approach to extension in Africa

Sharron responded to my thoughts on extension in Africa with this remark:

Sounds like the kind of work Peace Corps volunteers have been doing for decades.

Not quite. Peace Corp volunteers do wonderful work, but in essence they parachute in and often, though by no means always, apply solutions that are not necessarily entirely appropriate to the situation in which they find themselves. What is needed is local people, locally trained, but exposed to a world of experience among similar farmers facing similar obstacles. Agreed, we don’t yet know how to fund this sustainably, or exactly how to establish the e-aspect of it. But those details could be worked out, with a will.

Meantime, here’s a little video interview with Getachew Tibuket, whose Farmer Field Schools have trained something like 25,000 farmers in Ethiopia. I’ve no idea what they are trained to do, but it sounds like a useful approach.

Other examples welcome.

Bosnian bee-fest

Spent the whole week in Sarajevo for a meeting, but did get a chance to explore on Friday morning. Doing so, I stumbled on the Sarajevo Bee-Fest: lots of stalls with people selling all kinds of different local honeys, other bee products, and bee-keeping equipment. No sign of worry about colony collapse disorder.

Wheat a surprise

I am, I confess, very confused by two items I read yesterday. The first is an extensive report on India’s readiness to deal with the UG99 variant of wheat rust disease. The headline declares India’s wheat immune to Ug99, but on alert. Making allowances for the difficulties faced by sub-editors the world over, I read on, and discovered that 12 wheat varieties popular in India have shown some level of resistance when grown at test sites in Kenya. The article goes on to say that these are being bulked up and offered to wheat breeders and that an eagle-eye is watching “the higher hills of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Southern hills in Tamil Nadu to detect and track down Ug99 or its variants”. There’s also reassuring talk of the time it will take for the disease to build up to a scale large enough to cause economic losses. The article’s broad, soothing conclusion:

Thus a multi-pronged strategy is already in place to render the rust ineffective even in the most unlikely event of Ug99 striking Indian territory. “We are confident and feel that such a vibrant technical programme will stand by Indian farming community and will be able to avoid any crisis likely to be caused by this disease,” ICAR said in a report.

My confusion: is this really the approach you would expect from a support-seeking government agency? ICAR is the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and its press release on UG99 is the only source for the Commodity Online story linked to above. I’d have thought that, far from seeking to downplay fears, ICAR should be informing India and the world that without a lot more research the country’s wheat crop will remain in grave danger.

Item number two is from Reuters, seen at Guardian.co.uk. It reports on a speech that Thomas Lumpkin, the new Director General of CIMMYT, gave in Canberra, Australia. In essence, Lumpkin used current high food prices (dropping now, as farmers respond to market signals) to warn that unless the world accepts genetically modified wheat, “People will die, a lot of people will die.”

“Governments should try to help the public appreciate how much the high price of food affects the poor in developing countries,” Lumpkin told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. “By denying them this technology, you are keeping them hungry, they are dying.”

He obviously feels strongly about that. My confusion: is CIMMYT actively researching GMO wheat, putting its money where its DG’s mouth is? Yes, but not much — roughly 0.5% of the “total research portfolio” in 2004. The greedy capitalist pigs at Monsanto and Syngenta aren’t willing to take the risk. CIMMYT doesn’t have pesky shareholders or customers to satisfy. Perhaps it will now get stuck in.

Oh, and, one final confusion. CIMMYT’s Lumpkin, unlike India’s ICAR, does think UG99 is a problem. “Wheat breeders world-wide are racing against time to control this new threat,” said the summary of his speech. Reuters didn’t mention that part.

Tangled Bank 113

Just a week after 112, 113 appears. The fortnightly Tangled Bank schedule, in other words, is over its little hiccup and is back on track at En Tequila Es Verdad. Which reminds me, I wish I could get our resident peanut expert to explore his other favourite plant, agave, and give the straight dope on all those fine tequilas he’s experienced. But I digress. Which is what Dana does too in her post. All over the shop. In time and space. Visiting some parallel universe, she aims to persuade one C. Darwin to publish his book, where the less than thunderous reception of his paper at the Linnean Society seems to have dimmed his ardour. Perhaps in that universe Mr Darwin actually bothered to trek up to London for the evening and bored the Burlington Berties rigid himself. Anyway, Dana sets him straight, I think, with a massive round-up of the many, many fields of endeavour that depend ultimately on him publishing that blessed book.

The best bit, natch, is that our own humble contribution elicits exactly the correct response from the parallel Mr D. and gives Dana the opportunity to expound on the Tao of Science.

We’re chuffed. But there’s also lots of other good stuff there. I passed a few very pleasant minutes reading about mumps in Vancouver (maybe not your cup of tea) and Sterile Insect Release, and I have an agricultural question related to the latter: aside from screwworm and medfly, has it been used successfully on other agricultural insect pests?

Go. Read. Comment.