Tragedy of a bad title

Like lots of better-informed people, I too had not heard of Elinor 1 Ostrom, who shared this year’s Nobel Prize for Economics. But when Luigi alerted me this morning to the award, and I read what he called a “place-marker” post, I had only one reaction.

Many years ago I corresponded a bit with Garrett Hardin, whose paper in Science provided the title for Luigi (and scores of others) to riff on. In the course of that, I said that I didn’t think that the average commons was much of a tragedy, given the various examples he cited of a well-managed commons. And he replied to the effect that the title of that paper was one of his biggest mistakes. He should have called it The Tragedy of the Mismanaged Commons.

Of course I treasure that letter, along with a few others, which is why I kept it somewhere very safe, which is why I cannot now lay my hands on it. And I think of it whenever people assume, as they do all too often, that a commons is inevitably tragic.

All of which hardly matters at all, except that it seems we really ought to know more about Ostrom’s work. Bits and pieces are blipping into life on the radar screen, and will clearly require some study.

This, from Tyler Cowan, is helpful.

For Ostrom it’s not the tragedy of the commons but the opportunity of the commons. Not only can a commons be well-governed but the rules which help to provide efficiency in resource use are also those that foster community and engagement. A formally government protected forest, for example, will fail to protect if the local users do not regard the rules as legitimate. In Hayekian terms legislation is not the same as law. Ostrom’s work is about understanding how the laws of common resource governance evolve and how we may better conserve resources by making legislation that does not conflict with law.

I like the idea of “legislation that does not conflict with law”. And this series of posts will clearly repay study.

However, we would like to extend an invitation to anyone out there who would consider rewarding us, and our readers, with a better account of how Ostrom’s ideas might apply in particular to agricultural biodiversity, as a global commons, as a public good, as anything, frankly. You write it, we’ll stick it up here.

Thanks.

Featured: Micronutrients

Pablo reminds us there’s a lot already going on on “hidden hunger,” but much still remains to be done:

Much work has been done using a range of approaches to increase the micro-nutrient content of foods and diets. My hope is that the “no brainer” the Economist article refers to is to examine the wide range of approaches to addressing micro-nutrient deficiencies in diets and deliver some added value and fill in current gaps in research.

Commons not tragic after all

Elinor Ostrom has challenged the conventional wisdom that common property is poorly managed and should be either regulated by central authorities or privatized. Based on numerous studies of user-managed fish stocks, pastures, woods, lakes, and groundwater basins, Ostrom concludes that the outcomes are, more often than not, better than predicted by standard theories. She observes that resource users frequently develop sophisticated mechanisms for decision-making and rule enforcement to handle conflicts of interest, and she characterizes the rules that promote successful outcomes.

And for that very agrobiodiversity-relevant insight she has just won the Nobel Prize for Economics.

A global micronutrients campaign in the offing?

At next year’s G20 meeting in Canada, expect news of a big, co-ordinated global campaign [on “hidden hunger”], like the one against malaria.

Or so suggests a box in last week’s Economist, which calls the idea a no-brainer. I thought there was such a thing already. Anyway, let’s hope this new initiative on micronutrients, if it materializes, will take proper account of the contribution of dietary diversity and agrobiodiversity.

Too hot to fight

A short piece in the latest Economist describes a paper in Climate Change on the historical correlation between temperature and war. Up to about 1740-1750 colder years were also more warlike years, at least in Europe (the authors quote a paper that suggests there’s a similar correlation for China). This correlation is never particularly strong, though it is occasionally statistically significant, but then it breaks down entirely and shoots up into very slightly positive (though non-significant) territory.
graph

Dr Tol and Dr Wagner suggest that in the more remote past the effects of cold weather on harvests led to supply shortages, and that these increased the likelihood of people fighting over food and the land needed to produce it. They argue that the reason the relationship between warfare and cold vanishes in the mid-18th century is that this is the moment when the industrial revolution began. Both agriculture and transport improved rapidly at this time. Systematic plant breeding, the introduction of new crops and new forms of crop rotation, and better irrigation increased the food supply. Improvements in roads and the large-scale construction of canals allowed food to be transported from areas of plenty to areas of scarcity.

Does this have implications for the future? Presumably, it implies that we need not worry about war breaking out in Europe due to climate change. Not so fast.

Just because cold, rather than heat, caused problems in Europe during the millennium that Dr Tol and Dr Wagner examined does not mean rising temperatures pose no threat. The lesson, rather, is that the way to minimise the likelihood of climate-induced conflict in the future is to continue the process of crop improvement (for example, by taking advantage of the potential of genetic engineering) so that heat- and drought-tolerant varieties are available; to make farmers aware of these new crops and encourage their use; and to promote free trade and non-agricultural economic development. That way people will have no cause to fight, and tyrants no excuse to stir them up.

There is no correlation in this dataset between precipitation and war, but that’s the one I’d be watching.