Populations on the edge

ResearchBlogging.org Are populations on the edge of the geographic range of a species not so important to conserve as more central ones? That’s the provocative question tackled by a recent meta-analysis. (( ECKERT, C.G., SAMIS, K.E., LOUGHEED, S.C. (2008). Genetic variation across species’ geographical ranges: the central-marginal hypothesis and beyond. Molecular Ecology, 17 (5), 1170-1188. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03659.x)) Theory would suggest that marginal populations should be less diverse, and therefore possibly of less conservation value. But the theory has never really been properly tested, so the common assumption that marginal populations are less diverse is just that — an assumption.

Its theoretical underpinning is that individuals and populations are likely to be fewer and more widely spaced on the periphery compared to the centre of the range of a species. That means that effective population sizes are likely to be lower and isolation more pronounced, which suggests that genetic diversity within populations should be lower and among populations (differentiation) higher in marginal areas.

That turns out to be more or less the case for the 134 population genetic studies (of both plants and animals) reviewed by the authors: “any given species is more than twice as likely to show the predicted pattern as not, and usually a change in diversity is accompanied by a parallel change in differentiation.”

There are some caveats, however. The differences were generally pretty small. The actual mechanisms producing them not clear (were the differences the legacy of historical environmental changes or the result of ongoing evolution?). The sampling of species was biased taxonomically and geographically. Plus all of the studies looked at (supposedly) neutral variation rather than traits which might actually have adaptive importance.

But the results are nevertheless intriguing. Especially when you think about how they might be different for crops (I don’t think any of the 134 studies reviewed were of domesticated species). If anything, one would predict geneflow from the center to the periphery, and indeed among peripheral populations, to be stronger in crops than in wild species. That means that differences in genetic diversity and differentiation between centre and periphery are likely to be even smaller, maybe non-existent. Sounds like something worth checking.

A chef on seed saving

Chef’s Corner seems like a great idea: a blog by an experienced chef interested in American food traditions and the agrobiodiversity that underpins them. A recent post waxed lyrical about seed saving. Problem is, prior to this month’s six posts, the only previous ones were in May 2007. So I’m not sure how serious Chef Robert is about this venture. But I hope he sticks with it.

American Gothic, 21st century style

Somewhat related to Jeremy’s post just below, there’s an article in the New York Times about young Americans going back to the farm. Or rather, going to the farm for the first time: we’re talking Upper East Siders clambering onto tractors. Would be interesting to see whether the percentage of organic farmers among them turns out to be above the average, and whether they will tend to eschew biofuels and favour weird niche crops, heirloom varieties, and agricultural biodiversity in general. Via Metafilter.

Wheat and climate change

ResearchBlogging.orgA review paper in the latest Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment looks at what climate change will do to wheat, and what can be done about it. ((ORTIZ, R. et al. (2008). Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.019)) The lead author is deputy director general at the International Centre for Maize and Wheat Improvement (CIMMYT), and the picture he paints must be keeping him up at nights.

There are 12 different types of places where wheat is grown around the world — so-called “mega-environments.” They range from “high rainfall, hot” (e.g. in Bangladesh) to “low rainfall, severe cold” (around Ankara in Turkey). Some are better than others. One of the best is mega-environment 1, which amounts to 32 million hectares in northwest Mexico, the Indo-Gangetic Plains and the Nile Valley. It accounts for 15% of global wheat production, and it is in trouble.

When you look at the likely 2050 climate, half of the area of the Indo-Gangetic Plains which is now in mega-environment 1 might well need to be re-classified from pretty ideal low rainfall, irrigated, temperate to heat-stressed, short season. That is, conditions will look more like the Gezira in Sudan or Kano in Nigeria. That will reduce yields, affecting 200 million people.

So wheat breeders will have to develop varieties that can maintain yields under higher temperatures, unless you want farmers to switch to another crop entirely. Which might be the easiest thing in some places, actually, but that’s another story.

You can breed for resistance to an abiotic stress such as heat by growing a wide range of genotypes under that stress and looking for the highest yielding genotypes, of course. But what breeders at CIMMYT are now increasingly doing is trying to identify the different physiological attributes which are associated with high yield under stress conditions — things like leaf chlorophyll content during grain filling, for example. And then stacking them up together in new varieties. That’s had some success in breeding for drought resistance. Let’s hope — for the sake of Indian wheat farmers — that it works for heat too.