- To a hammer, everything is a nail; Decanter magazine bemoans loss of sake breweries in Japan.
- One door closes, another one opens; “price winning” Croatian wines.
- Why go to Kew when you can tour with Google streetview?
- Slideshow on genebanks and climate change adaptation in Ethiopia. Wish I could hear the words.
- Canadians! Your heritage crops and breeds need you.
- How best to dry banana slices in Ethiopia.
The climate–demography vulnerability index of my mother-in-law
Another dispatch from the outer reaches of GISland. Yesterday’s post on the likely consequences of climate change around my mother-in-law’s farm in Kenya got me thinking that it would be nice to see where that locality fits in the global vulnerability scene. One can actually do that thanks to a recent paper in Global Ecology and Biogeography. ((Samson, J., Berteaux, D., McGill, B., & Humphries, M. (2011). Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the predicted impacts of climate change on human populations Global Ecology and Biogeography DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00632.x))
The authors start by calculating something they call Global Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI)
…by combining climate change forecasts with current relationships between human density and climate. We further refined the CVI by contrasting predicted vulnerabilities with demographic growth rates to create a climate–demography vulnerability index (CDVI) reflecting the spatial disparities between demographic trends and climate-consistent population growth.
The global map of CDVI is Fig. 5 in the paper. But how to get that into Google Earth? Thanks to the raw GIS files from one of the authors, and some R magic from friend and occasional contributor Robert, I now have a kmz file of CDVI, on top of which I can easily plot the location of the mother-in-law’s spread at Gataka near Limuru. In the map below, dark blue is bad, light blue less so.
Gataka turns out to have a slightly positive CDVI.
Highly negative values [of CDVI] … represent low-vulnerability situations where current demographic growth is much lower than climate-consistent population growth, while highly positive values … represent high-vulnerability situations where current demographic growth vastly exceeds climate-consistent population growth.
So, bad news for the mother-in-law, but not actually as bad as I feared. I wonder if I can persuade her to diversify. Perhaps into indigenous leafy greens. And sorghum, as maize seems to be heading for trouble. SPAM says sorghum should be the main crop here anyway. It may yet turn out to be right.
More messing about with Droppr
I continued my exploration of IFPRI’s wonderful Droppr software by looking at its future climate tool. You click on a spot on the Earth and it tells you how total precipitation and average temperature will change, for each month of the year. Again, I did it for the mother-in-law’s farm, and this is the result:
Looks pretty bad, at least for temperature. Although of course, for maize at least, which is the main food crop in that area, what you really want to know is peak, rather than average, temperatures. That’s according to a study by David Lobell and Marianne Bänziger we nibbled a few days back, and which recently got a big write up in The Economist:
Days above 30°C are particularly damaging. In otherwise normal conditions, every day the temperature is over this threshold diminishes yields by at least 1%. Moreover, days where the temperature exceeds 32°C do twice the harm of those at 31°C. And during a drought, things are worse still. Then, yields take a hit of 1.7% per day over 30°C.
Nibbles: ABS in ITPGRFA, Wheat Yield Consortium, Plasticity and climate change, Sustainable intensification, Early agriculture
- Outstanding Issues on ABS under the Multilateral System – a background study paper. Wait, there’s outstanding issues?
- Wheat geeks meet.
- Plastic plants will cope with climate change. Not what you think.
- Nice write-up of the UK Foresight Food and Farming Futures report on Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture in Africa from Farming First.
- First farmers not as productive as last foragers. One wonders why they bothered.
Nibbles: Mead, Treaty, Zoonoses, Flowery margins, Post-doc, Sacred Groves, Posters, Maize in Africa.
- Mead, part 4. You can find 1-3 yourselves.
- Plant genetic resources key to food security. The Jakarta Post gets it.
- Long, complex post from ILRI on zoonoses; diseases that infect people and animals.
- What are all the flowers for? The Provincial Agricultural Chamber of East Flanders seeks answers. h/t PAR.
- Wanna do a post-doc on Comprehensive modelling of agro-biodiversity in relation to seed exchange networks?
- Sacred groves threatened, by Times of India.
- Fabulous botanical posters, many featuring useful species, and all useful information. Of course tomatoes are fruits.
- I meant to write in detail about how Untapped crop data from Africa predicts corn peril if temperatures rise, but you know, life intervened.