Quibbling while the world burns

The Soil Association has an ax to grid, sure. But it seems also to have a point — sort of. In a report out a couple of days ago it notes that people have been saying that people have said that food production needs to double by 2050, because of population increase, westernization of consumption patterns and climate change. It then goes on to suggest that people have not said that at all, and that other people should stop saying they had.

Research into the doubling figure shows it doesn’t actually exist in the stated source — and that it is based on a number of incorrect assumptions. The scientific basis for the claims are based on a report which on close inspection actually says production would need to increase by around 70%, not 100%. As the Government states this is a significant difference. The closest the report comes to the doubling claim is projecting that meat consumption in developing countries, except China, could double. The scientific paper that the 50% by 2030 claim is based on appears to have been withdrawn by the authors.

So, first, is this a straw man? It seems not. People really have been quoting the doubling-by-2050 figure.

Second, is it true that the key document usually cited as the source, FAO’s 2006 publication World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050, does not make the doubling claim? Well, you can check for yourself, but I did some rapid searching and found no such claim. The only reference to a doubling or 100% increase by 2050 came in the context of meat consumption in developing countries (minus China) on page 5.

Some of this growth potential will materialize as effective demand and their per capita consumption could double by 2050, i.e. faster than in the past. It is unlikely that other major developing countries will replicate the role played by China in the past in boosting the world meat sector.

The Soil Association report says that the “only specific statements [in the FAO document] about large percentage increases in demand are focused on the developing world (where the increases in population will be) and concerned only with meat and cereal production, not all food.” In particular:

The largest projected increases in food demand are for cereals and for meat and dairy products. For cereals, there is a projected increase of 1 billion tonnes annually over the 2 billion tonnes of 2005, a 50% increase in cereals by 2050.

Which seems an accurate enough precis of the statement on page 5 of the FAO document:

…an increase of world production by another 1.1 billion tonnes annually will be required by 2050 over the 1.9 billion tonnes of 1999/01 (or 1 billion tonnes over the 2 billion of 2005).

But. FAO also says that “the absolute increases involved should not be underestimated” and “[a]chieving it should not be taken for granted, as land and water resources are now more stretched than in the past and the potential for continued growth of yield is more limited.”

So, sure, a 50% increase in cereal production in developing countries is not the same as a doubling of food production globally, and we should not use figures for which the evidence is thin at best. But it still represents a significant challenge, in particular to breeders. I hope the Soil Association is going to help the world meet it, and not just snipe from the sidelines.