Yes, we have more banana distribution data

More today on where bananas grow. Or where people think they may grow, anyway. First, let’s tie up some loose ends. Yesterday I mentioned Chad Monfreda‘s dataset from the Land Use and Global Environmental Change project, but said that I hadn’t been able to get an actual map. Thanks to Julian and Andy, I now have. To the left is the result for banana.

And to the right for plantain.

Andy also pointed me to another dataset, called MIRCA2000: “Global data set of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000.” Here’s Andy’s pragmatic take on this proliferation of datasets:

You do have information on quality and uncertainties and there is enough info — if you are interested — to work out which to use. I don’t believe that there is a right or wrong answer here, they all try to make the best of what is often very cruddy and incomplete data.

In short – you’ll have to sort it out yourself, along with the rest of us. I just take the average of these when I need to make a rice area map – though the average of a bunch of wrong datasets is still a wrong dataset.

It’s a choice between modelled crop distributions or statistical data or a combination of both. Neither is wholly accurate and like most global data sets, it is best not to look too closely at the results.

4 data sets are better than none right?

Glenn also chimed in with his work for the Generation Challenge Programme, which uses the SPAM dataset I mentioned yesterday. It’s still in beta, so you can’t play around with it yet, but, again, this is what banana in Africa looks like:

Julian sums it up very well in his very comprehensive comment on yesterday’s post, and I leave the final word to him:

This is what you’d normally expect when there’s no coordination or data sharing among institutions: you end up with several institutions, each one re-inventing the wheel. The public then does not know which source to use.

So, you end up with two sources of data: (1) FAO country level statistics, and (2) expert knowledge; two methods: Monfreda et al.’s and HarvestChoice’s; and one visualization tool. Anyone interested in comparing or merging?

Where do bananas grow anyway?

Where does crop X grow? Important question. And pretty simple too, no? No! Because just a little looking around yields about half a dozen different answers, and no clear idea of which to trust, or how they relate to each other, or how they were arrived at, or even if there are more.

Here’s what I came up with in only about half an hour of searching. The following are all data for banana/plantains. First, there’s MapSpaM (that would be Spatial Production Allocation Model), from HarvestChoice:

Then there’s FAO’s AgroMAPS, which has some really weird data in it. Try looking at the distribution of cassava in Africa, for example. Anyway, here’s banana, which actually looks pretty weird itself:

And then there’s CIAT’s Crop Atlas of the World. ((Which as you can see if you click on that link does not exist as a separate thing any more, but the components of which you can find on the Harvest Choice data catalogue.)) That says it is based on the FAO data, but doesn’t really seem like it to me, at least not on this evidence:

In its time, CIAT has also used the dataset from the Land Use and Global Environmental Change project called “Harvested Area and Yields of 175 crops (M3-Crops Data),” but I haven’t been able to get a map of that.

And then there’s IITA’s banana mapping effort, which admittedly is very much still a work in progress:

Well, I suppose I could sort out some of the questions I have about all this if I spent a little more time at it. But really, should a poor boy have to? Shouldn’t FAO, or the CGIAR, have all this sorted out by now? Anyone out there want to guide me through this?

Following crop development in real time

The Global Agriculture Monitoring Project (GLAM), a joint NASA, USDA, UMD and SDSU initiative, has built a global agricultural monitoring system that provides the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) with timely, easily accessible, scientifically-validated remotely-sensed data and derived products as well as data analysis tools, for crop-condition monitoring and production assessment.

Great for deciding on the timing of germplasm collecting expeditions too, I would imagine.

Nibbles: Bean gap analysis, Protected areas 2.0, NZ livestock, French boar, Taro in Hawaii, UNEP, Moringa, False flax, Hordeum

Links between trait and ecogeographic data found for Nordic barley landraces

As promised yesterday, here’s a summary of Dag Terje Endresen’s recent paper, ((Endresen, D. (2010). Predictive Association between Trait Data and Ecogeographic Data for Nordic Barley Landraces Crop Science, 50 (6) DOI: 10.2135/cropsci2010.03.0174)) by the author himself.

Focused Identification of Germplasm (FIGS, Mackay and Street, 2004) is a new method to select plant genetic resources for the improvement of food crops. A recent paper in Crop Science (Endresen, 2010) describes how climate data (derived from the WorldClim dataset, Hijmans et al,. 2005) for the original collecting site for 14 Nordic barley landraces was successfully correlated to 5 out of 6 morphological traits with a multiway regression method (N-PLS). This result indicates that the researcher or crop breeder faced with the world’s genebank collections of plant genetic resources could use climate data as a proxy to more efficiently find material with a particular, desired trait property, even when the trait itself is not measured for most of the genebank samples. Another obvious use case would be to apply the FIGS method to learn the ecogeographic signature (calibrate a computer model) for a particular crop trait and then next apply this computer model to identify likely locations to visit for collecting new germplasm to fill gaps and complete the genebank collection (Jarvis et al., 2003; and Jarvis et al., 2005). This last use case for the FIGS strategy would be a natural extension of the ecological niche modeling methods to estimate species distributions. ((Which, coincidentally, are used as the backbone of another just-published paper by some of these same authors.))

The growing size of the genebank collections has been quoted as a problem for the efficient use of these collections (see for example Mackay, 1995). The growing size of genebank collections, together with the common lack of important descriptive data, was one of the arguments for the introduction of the core selection method by Frankel and Brown way back in 1984. The available relevant genebank accessions for a given project are often much more numerous than the capacity to evaluate them (field land area, laboratory capacity or human resources). But the lack of important descriptive data on the genebank accessions is often a limitation for deriving a suitable smaller subset of accessions, such as a core. The FIGS method can be used to try to predict missing descriptive data in genebank collections, as long as they are geo-referenced.

It is however important to be aware that the FIGS models are computer simulations and should of course always be confirmed by experimental work with the genebank accessions in the field or laboratory. It is also important to be aware of the limitations of the FIGS method in modelling the explanation for the trait expression from the ecogeographic dataset only. Important climatic variables that could explain the geographic distribution of a trait might be missing from the data analysis. Improved availability online of large-scale ecogeographic datasets, like for example the WorldClim dataset, might gradually help to improve this limitation.

And not the least when working with cultivated material (landraces), the adaptive development of the crop trait might be more dominantly explained by the breeding decisions made by the farmer. For more modern cultivated material there is in fact no appropriate location of origin, as the breeding lines are often the complex result of crossing between genetic resources from very many different source locations.

The FIGS computer model is of course not intended to replace the valuable expert knowledge held by the crop breeders and genebank curators. An expert on the crop or trait in question would be in the best position to evaluate the FIGS prediction to make corrections and additions. The results from the FIGS prediction, together with the corrections and additions from the crop expert, would next guide the development of the smaller subset of accessions. The size of the smaller subset could be limited by the capacity by the size of the available field area, laboratory capacity, or by the project funding available for human resources.

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