Coming from a state, Wisconsin, that has more cattle than people, I say thank your lucky stars that Hindus worship cows, because it could be a lot worse. As globalization triggers the successful emergence of a world-spanning middle class largely centered on India and China, what Mr. and Mrs. Middle-Class Chindia choose to eat in coming decades will reshape this planet’s ecosystem to a profound degree.
Tom Barnett has a clear-eyed view of the future, and his take on The Economist’s take on rich countries rushing to buy up farmland makes fascinating reading. Here are his two conclusions:
So those Chinese and Saudi Arabian agents running around the planet, buying up all the arable land deeds they can find, are simply trying to hedge against this inexorable future. Will such pieces of paper matter when a serious food shortage hits? I doubt it. Last year China was one of the first nations to slap restrictions on rice exports, so how can it expect states where it may own farmland to act any differently?
But here’s where the new rules really kick in: A 21st century dominated by advances in biotechnologies is sure to feature commensurate bioweaponization, including among the weapons wielded by transnational terrorists. As energy production becomes increasingly localized thanks to technology breakthroughs, expect global food transportation systems to become the preeminently vulnerable — and thus preeminently guarded — commodity network on the planet.
You think so?