Agrobiodiversity is crops, livestock, foodways, microbes, pollinators, wild relatives …
Irish researcher Theresa McDonald has a request:
I am currently researching transhumance in the West of Ireland and would appreciate any information, photographs of this practice in the Mediterranean region of Europe. I am familiar with the Vlach shepherds of Greece and hope to visit the Pindus Mountains sometime in the future.
Can you help her?
I predict that we (using the term in its widest possible sense) will understand the links between growing conditions and yield much more deeply. In particular, how changes in a plant’s environment will affect its output.
This is based on Heat, Humidity and Crop Yields, a post by Michael J Roberts, who has an economist’s ability to build complex models that explain some things rather well. The latest looks at how much better predictions of yield are when vapour pressure deficit is added to the model. As Roberts explains:
Vapor pressure deficit, a close cousin to relative humidity, has a linear relationship with evaporation, and is a key input in many crop models.
The point is that VPD is not that easy to measure, but that if you manage to do so, it is very handy.
There are two interesting things about the VPD measure we construct. First, average VPD for July and August is closely associated with our best-fitting extreme heat measure, at least in Illinois. Second, adding VPD for the season and VPD for July and August to our standard regression greatly improves prediction. Using just five variables, these two plus growing degree days (degree days between 10C and 29C), extreme heat degree days (degree days above 29C) and precipitation, we can explain over 70 percent of the variance of Illinois yields, excluding the upward trend. That’s better than USDA’s August and September forecasts, which are based on field-level samples and farmer interviews. The model can explain almost half the difference between the August forecast and the final yield for Illinois.
OK, so it is only in Illinois. And only for maize. But it might yet end up improving crop prediction models more generally.
This would appear to be post No. 5000. That it deals not with agrobiodiversity but with the effects of climate change on a single species, and probably very few varieties of that species, seems rather fitting.
While we were away, the resourceful Nicole at The Roaming Naturalist was busy compiling a bunch of botanical blog posts into the latest Berry go Round carnival. And a fascinating bunch it is too, not least, from our particular point of view, for the extensive explanation of tomato pollination.
Thanks equally to those who hosted BGR in 2011 and to those who submitted posts, their own or someone else’s. First up hosting in 2012 will be Moss Plants and More.
Volunteers for subsequent months most welcome, and as Nicole will tell you, it is actually both fun and rewarding.
I’m not sure how widely known it is that the two recent earthquakes in northern Italy, apart from the tragic loss of life, destruction of homes and damage to historical buildings, are also likely to have a significant effect on livelihoods, and not least because of the impact on the production of the iconic cheese of the region, Parmigiano Reggiano. From the Facebook fan page of the consortium of producers, I see that 24 firms are affected, for a total of 300,000 40kg wheels damaged, or 10% of production. The advice of the Consorzio del Parmigiano Reggiano for those who would like to help is to keep buying the stuff. No need to ask me twice.
And we interrupt our holidays again for an important announcement. Dr Mike Jackson, who worked at IRRI for some two decades, much of that in the genebank, has been awarded an OBE in the New Year Honours List. Congratulations, Mike!